Silver has reached its highest price since 2011, now exceeding $38 per ounce. It's not just a number. The market has broken through a level it failed to surpass twice in the past. For the first time in more than a decade, this isn’t a false breakout—it’s a confirmed breakthrough.
What we’re seeing is not a regular move. In recent months, signals have been aligning that could significantly reshape the market. Whether it's a shift in sentiment, growing interest in real assets, or a structural shortage in supply, silver is returning to the spotlight.
After years of patient waiting, silver has finally broken through a level that had acted as an unbreakable ceiling since 2011. If we look at the chart, the cup and handle formation, which has been building for over a decade, is now confirmed. The market is entering a new phase, where realistic price targets appear to be between $40 and $50.
Such strong formations often initiate long trends. We saw similar developments after 2009 or in the 1970s following the end of the gold standard. In both cases, silver multiplied in value within just a few months.
Silver chart from TradingView – the so-called 'cup and handle' pattern, a highly bullish formation that typically signals a continuation of the price uptrend.
But what may be even more important than the breakout itself? The current positioning of large players in the market. According to available data, banks are holding an extremely high number of short positions—the second highest volume in history. This is a situation that has historically proven dangerous to ignore.
Short positions can work when the market is falling or stagnating. But when the price escapes control and the supply of physical metal dries up, there's pressure to quickly close those positions. That sparks a domino effect, which can push prices much higher.
Some indicators already suggest mounting stress in the system. The spread between physical silver prices and futures prices is the largest in recent years. The market is out of balance and could explode.
There is no single clear trigger behind the current move. And that is often a sign the market is gearing up for a bigger shift. It may be a combination of several factors:
Persistently high inflation, which remains difficult to tame.
A slowing U.S. economy, even though official data doesn’t yet point to a recession.
Expectations that the Fed may soon have to cut interest rates.
Uncertainty about Jerome Powell’s future and pressure for a leadership change at the Fed.
Concerns about the impact of new tariffs, geopolitical conflicts, and rising energy costs.
None of these factors alone would be enough. But together, they create an environment where real assets can shine. And silver, with its dual role as both an industrial and monetary commodity, could take the lead.
Looking back, whenever a similar mix of conditions appeared, silver reacted sharply. After the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in the 1970s, it experienced explosive growth. After the 2008 financial crisis, silver surged from $9 to $50 in just two years. Following COVID, we witnessed another strong wave—although it remained unfinished.
Today’s environment shares many similarities with those historical moments. Once again, we face systemic tension, uncertainty around monetary policy, and structural demand from industry—particularly driven by the green energy transition.
Within our Balance product, we currently have approximately 11% exposure to silver. The recent developments confirm that this was the right direction.
We’ve set our long-term target price between $40–50 per ounce.
We’re also watching the miners. In the past, we’ve already realized some profits in this segment, but the current move is prompting us to consider re-entering. Miners typically lag behind the metal itself—so if silver stabilizes at higher levels, there may be opportunities to buy producers' stocks at attractive prices.
The breakout above $38 is, in our view, a signal that a new chapter is beginning. We’ll be monitoring whether the trend continues and whether the broader market joins the move. If that happens, the current price may only be the beginning.
Note: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Investing in financial markets involves risks, and it is important to conduct your own analysis before making any investment decisions.